The effect of the pandemic on the economy
Although the Spanish flu reached its peak at the end of the First World War, the most important activities in terms of the economic and social impact of the flu are; some authors state that the effect may be greater than reported (Barro and Ursúa, 2008). Barrow et al. (2020) focused on the macroeconomic impact (catastrophe) of epidemics (mainly Spanish flu and COVID-19). They interpret these effects as a negative correlation with the global gross domestic product (GDP) of around 10 percent per capita. Then World War I, World War II and the Spanish flu produced the greatest economic impact of our time. The 1918 Spanish flu may have been the next major macroeconomic event, but the authors say the epidemic is now over.
Other reports, coronavirus II. Associates with World War II (Reuters, 2020). Of course, the current global pandemic (COVID-19) is a strange business. In the past, outbreaks have occasionally occurred in more or less industrialized countries, but the current outbreak is mostly focused on today’s large economies (Baldwin and Weder di Mauro, 2020). In response to the growing epidemic, countries with strong financial resources should implement “containment” and “mitigation” strategies (WHO, 2009) as a way to “make infection possible” (Nicola et al., 2020). These include the complete closure of public events, travel bans, closure of borders, isolation and quarantine, which causes fears that will lead to commercial and economic disruptions (Ozili and Arun, 2020).
Figure 1: Flattening the Pandemic Curve
Source: Detmer et al. 2021 (https://relief.unboundmedicine.com/relief/view/Coronavirus-Guidelines/2355041/all/Epidemic__Epi__Curves_for_Coronavirus_COVID_19)
Figure 1 illustrates the importance of pandemic mitigation measures. While these measures help to reduce the maximum number of cases and therefore the number of deaths associated with the epidemic, they delay time and thus affect the economy of the epidemic. Based on experience with previous outbreaks, researchers have reported that the stress and isolation that accompanies this disease affects work and social relationships such as agriculture, education, and health (Bermejo, 2004; Arndt and Lewis, 2001).